How has the International Students’ Choice of Universities in Japan Changed since 2020? Results from a Dual-lens Analysis

Abstract

Since 2020, international students applying to Japanese universities have faced challenges such as restricted mobility, changes in the information environment, and increased economic uncertainty. This study examined whether these conditions were associated with changes in within-Japan university choice and applicant composition. Based on an anonymous online survey, Pre-2020 and Post-2020 cohorts (N = 343) were compared in their within-Japan university choice. Exploratory factor analysis suggested five antecedent factors and four strategy tendencies. Multi-group CFA supported cross-cohort measurement comparability and identified Post-2020 increases in selected dimensions. In the MG-SEM, the model-level comparison indicated an overall difference in structural paths, but no single path difference remained significant after multiple-testing correction. Person-centered clustering showed significant redistribution in antecedent profiles and selected cluster-specific differences in strategy tendencies. The findings suggest that the Post-2020 cohort differed in antecedent-profile distribution and reported stronger feasibility-related strategy tendencies. These results indicate that Japanese universities may need to provide clearer information, more targeted applicant support, and more flexible admission opportunities for international students.